Weekend projections: The Fall Guy opens with underwhelming $28.5-million

Good word of mouth is definitely helping The Fall Guy this weekend, and it will coming in somewhat ahead of our Friday-morning prediction, according to Universal’s Sunday-morning projection. But $28.5 million is a disappointing result, particularly given how long it’s been since a big-budget movie hit theaters.

Here’s how the weekend numbers look as of Sunday morning (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…

Beating our forecast by 14% is at least a good sign for The Fall Guy. It’s earning an A- CinemaScore, which is downright excellent for a movie like this, and that’s a hopeful sign for a decent run in theaters. The answer to the question of why it’s under-performing lies in its demographics. 71% of the audience this weekend is 25 and older—a high number for a movie like this. The 55+ set is making up 17% of the audience, and roughly half (49% to be precise) of the audience is 35 and older. If it had hit a 50-50 split between under 25s and the “older” audience, it would probably have topped $30 million fairly comfortably. That does at least give it room to grow in the next few weeks, particularly as some of the 18–24 put their exams behind them.

In second place, Star Wars: The Phantom Menace is doing excellent business. Disney has plenty in its Star Wars arsenal for future May 4 celebrations, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Episode II show up this time next year.

Tarot is also posting disappointing numbers this weekend, although it’s coming in very close to our Friday prediction, indicating at least average word of mouth. Its arrival took a big chunk of out Abigail’s earnings, and that film is the weakest performer in the top 10 this weekend.

– Studio weekend projections

– All-time top-grossing movies in North America

– All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com