Everyone will begin returning to the movies just before Thanksgiving on November 22 as Universal’s Wicked and Paramount’s Gladiator II just hit tracking with respective openings of $80M+ and $65M. Both have potential for upside, and we won’t know if we’re within a Barbenheimer vortex until it happens — though that would not be a surprise. Wicked is very hot with women, and Gladiator II is best with men but also older women.
At $80M+, that easily would be the best domestic box office opening for filmmaker Jon M. Chu, ahead of 2013’s G.I. Joe Retaliation ($41M), and yes, the best for stars Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo.
At $65M+ for Gladiator II, that’d be a record opening for Denzel Washington and for director Ridley Scott. Washington’s previous top bow was Scott’s American Gangster ($44M in 2007), while Scott’s previous big debut was 2001’s Hannibal with $58M.
Other box office thresholds looking to be broken: The $80M+ would be a record start for a movie based on a Broadway show and ahead of any non-Disney musical, with Bohemian Rhapsody owning that record at $51M. Gladiator II‘s opening easily is tracking ahead of the 2000 first pic’s $34.8M (unadjusted for inflation) start, which legged out to $187.7M domestic en route to winning the Best Picture Oscar.
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Disney’s Moana 2 hasn’t hit three-weekend tracking yet, and even though it’s bound for a $100M+ five-day, it remains to be seen how much of a dent it will make to the competition as it’s a holiday week, and everyone’s going. Black Friday traditionally is one of the single richest moviegoing days of the year.
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Interesting to note that both Wicked and Gladiator II came on tracking with tied unaided awareness of 19; that’s the category whereby moviegoers cite which pics they’re going to see without any prodding from a pollster. Total awareness is essentially tied for both with numbers in the low-80s. Gladiator II is ahead of Wicked in total interest and first choice, indicating a broader audience beyond its dudes.
We hear that presales for Wicked are leaps and bounds ahead of Gladiator II, but that’s only because female moviegoers tend to plan their trips to the cinema far in advance with groups. We also hear that presales for Wicked are double that of Beetlejuice Beetlejuice but behind that of Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour. For Universal, Wicked is its Jurassic World for the year; the studio has been shouting this adaptation of the stage show in Paris Olympics and Super Bowl spots. Early reactions from screenings for both titles are red hot with Wicked Broadway star Kristin Chenoweth praising, “Y’ALL WON’T EVEN BELIEVE HOW GOOD IT IS.” The actress who originated the Glinda role in Wicked on Broadway also would not confirm nor deny that she’s making a cameo in the movie.
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As the world already knows, Universal split Wicked into two movies, with Part 2 hitting theaters in time for Thanksgiving 2025. Originally, Wicked was squaring off against Disney’s Moana 2 on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving before moving onto Gladiator II‘s opening date.
Gladiator II is getting a head start of Wicked at the overseas box office on November 13. Even though the Paul Mescal-led movie will be No. 2 to Wicked stateside in its weekend debut, long legs are anticipated for the sequel to the original starring Best Actor Oscar winner Russell Crowe.
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