Box Office: Sydney Sweeney’s ‘Eden’

Ron Howard‘s star-studded early 20th century island survival thriller, Eden, finally arrived in theaters this weekend after world premiering at the Toronto International Film Festival close to a year ago thanks to Vertical‘s theatrical belief in the film, the pic opening to $1M at 664 theaters.

Before another rival trade can declare “bomb” on another back-to-back Sydney Sweeney movie this summer, once again, Eden was a niche play like last weekend’s Lionsgate Premiere title Americana with the expectation that the movie’s ancillary revenues remain its ultimate savoir.

Still, Eden‘s path to production, and ultimate theatrical distribution is a case study in the current post pandemic theatrical acquisitions marketplace, one in which there are several star-studded indie movies which remain unsold. While $1M isn’t anything to brag about, it’s a means to an end in understanding how a $55M gross budgeted, but $35M net production big swing was assembled.

Eden took eight months before it finally found a U.S. distribution deal with Vertical with no minimum guarantee paid. Why, oh, why did it take that long for a smart thriller from 2x Oscar winning filmmaker Howard to find a distributor? Alas, the movie also carries an awards patina in Oscar nominees Vanessa Kirby, Ana de Armas, Jude Law, 2x Primetime Emmy nominee Sweeney, and BAFTA nominated thespian Daniel Brühl.

Unfortunately, what prevented Eden from receiving an MG was its lackluster reviews (currently at 55% on Rotten Tomatoes) out of TIFF. It should be noted that the movie’s world premiere at Roy Thomson Hall was temporarily halted by a medical emergency suffered by a ticketholder. Sources tell Deadline had the movie received great reviews ala last fall’s The Brutalist (93% certified fresh), which bowed out of Venice and was acquired by A24 for $10M leading to 3 Oscar wins and $16.2M domestic/$50.3M WW box office, Eden‘s fate would have been different. Post TIFF, AGC Studios was seeking a distribution deal whereby the distributor would handle P&A. Lionsgate at one point was interested, and liked the movie, but had their own Sweeney movie in Americana. Vertical was willing to make a low single digit millions P&A commitment on Eden with a distribution fee in the low-to-mid teens. The pic is on a 30-day exclusive theatrical window before PVOD and an awards campaign is being mulled.

However, paradise isn’t completely lost on Eden. While some foreign partners who bought theatrical (i.e. Germany, Benelux, Italy, Eastern Europe, Middle East, China, Japan) stand the risk of a haircut at the box office, there is about half of foreign’s first window sold to Prime Video. The advise for Eden‘s foreign theatrical distributors is to mimic Vertical’s stateside release pattern and bank on this star-studded movie delivering in the home market. At the same time, there wasn’t a domestic screen count minimum requirement which had to satisfy foreign distributors (who often argue for 1,000 minimum U.S. break). Eden opted for a platform release to build word of mouth (the Rotten Tomatoes audience score being higher than critics at 71%).

How the back of the napkin math works for Eden is that the $55M production cost was reduced down to a net $35M production cost thanks to soft money from Australian tax credits. AGC Studios raised a net $26M in foreign sales out of Cannes 2024 giving them a gap to make-up of $9M. Financiers Library Pictures, Medan Pictures, as well as AGC Studios covered 15% of the budget, collectively that being the $9M once you factor in the cost of money. Elevate and Cooper Island were lenders against the presales and tax credit.

How to make-up the majority of that gap? The idea is with a domestic streaming deal which AGC Studios and Vertical are both currently teaming to negotiate on. Aren’t those deals based on a movie’s box office success? Not necessarily as the sheen of the cast alone is enough to drive viewers to watch, all box office aside. The hope is that PVOD, TVOD and AVOD will also assist in clearing Eden‘s $9M shortfall. AGC Studios didn’t charge a 20% foreign sales package fee on the film rather 5% which is the going rate in the current climate particularly on an indie title with financiers like this.

Howard was attracted to Eden in its true story about “characters who are really pressure tested” in a tale where mother nature wasn’t the biggest antagonist, rather human nature. Howard first heard about this story 15 years ago on a trip to the Galapagos; Eden following a small group of European settlers who flee post WWI Germany for a peaceful life in the wilds of Floreana Island. Law plays Dr. Friedrich Ritter, whose survival and philosophical tales in the wild have become quite popular in his native Germany. He lives on the island with his partner, Dore Strauch (Kirby), who is battling MS, though Ritter believes he’s been able to quell her condition. Their solitude is suddenly intruded upon by fellow German family, Margret and Heinz Wittmer (Sweeney and Brühl), who are inspired by the doctor’s writing. The simple island life of caves, crabs, lizards, wild boar and no running water is upended with the arrival of de Armas’ Baroness Eloise Bosquet de Wagner Wehrhorn who threatens to build an exclusive hotel. Chaos ensues among the group in a Lord of the Flies meets Mosquito Coast like movie, which in some ways thematically isn’t far from Howard’s dark 2003 $60M budgeted western, The Missing, starring Cate Blanchett and Tommy Lee Jones. That movie with reviews of 58% on RT, and a B CinemaScore made $27M domestic, $38.3M worldwide financed by Joe Roth’s Revolutions Studios.

Eden‘s arrival in theaters comes at a time when motion picture distributors are severely weighing whether a feature is worth their investment, and streamers significantly curtailing their film pick-ups; their internal efficiency statistic of cost-to-viewership being the key metric of a movie’s worth. Coming out of a sluggish Sundance, and entering a vibrant Venice-Telluride-Toronto where there’s an abundance of product, overnight sudden auctions have become rare with acquisition talks with potential distributors long after the fests are done. Some film financiers such as Black Bear have opted in this climate to brave it and release and market their own slates, their critically acclaimed Matthew McConaughey SXSW title, The Rivals of Amziah King, embarking on such a route.

Just like Eden is a cautionary tale about humans’ endurance in the wild, so is it one when it comes to indie financing nowadays, and the challenges involved in building a mid-sized budget picture sans a domestic deal.

If survival of the fittest exists in this brutal landscape of indie feature financing and acquisitions, sources consider Eden a compass.