Weekend predictions: F1 roaring to $50 million or more, while M3GAN 2.0 stalls

F1: The Movie is set to zoom to the top of the box office chart this weekend with an opening exceeding $50 million, setting the record for a live action movie based on motor sports by topping Talldega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby. Meanwhile, M3GAN 2.0 looks as though it is paying the price for straying too far from its roots, with a debut likely well under $20 million.

Here are the model’s predictions, as of Friday lunchtime, starting with the “baseline” prediction for F1, which was constructed before we had hard data on ticket sales…

Audience interest has been consistently high for F1, with our model pegging its opening at something north of $50 million for a while. The preview numbers confirm that confidence…

A sharp slowdown is possible, and $50 million isn’t 100% guaranteed, but this film looks as though it has the momentum to do at least that, and something a little higher is on the cards.

For M3GAN 2.0, the model sticks to using the previous film in the franchise as a comparison point. Going into the weekend, that looked about right based on our audience tracking.

The previews tell a different story…

It looks as though M3GAN 2.0 has fallen into the same trap as Joker: Folie à Deux by trying to take a sharp turn from the original film. Fans of the first film aren’t impressed with the change, it seems.

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

F1 is the clear winner this weekend, with How to Train Your Dragon benefiting from M3GAN missing the mark. Overall, we’re looking at a healthy weekend compared to last time, assuming F1 stays on track.

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com