The Last Dance’ Missteps With $52M Opening

UPDATE SATURDAY AM: The previous Venom: Let There Be Carnage drew 10 million people during opening weekend off a $90M opening, and the threequel here, Venom: The Last Dance, is pulling in close to half that in admissions. The numbers speak for themselves, at least at the domestic box office, and fewer moviegoers are making time for Sony/Marvel’s Venom: The Last Dance with $52M opening after a $22M Friday/previews. That’s $13M less than the $65M projected opening, and it’s $38M less than the previous installment’s franchise domestic record opening. Venom movies were never made to speak to the top of anyone’s intelligence. Anora, this is not.

Speaking of the stripper with a heart of gold and nerves of steel drama, the Mikey Madison NEON release upticks from 28 theaters to 34 this weekend with an estimated 3-day of $651K (+18%), busting into the top 10 after a $280K Friday and ten-day of $1.4M.

Venoms were always a herky-jerky Jekyll and Hyde mish-mosh earning B+ scores (good enough to fly with mass audiences), and this time around, the threequel gets a B-. If there’s one sequel audiences are returning to tonight, it’s the second night of the World Series to see whether the New York Yankees can bounce back from that 6-3 Dodgers win last night.

It would be easy to scream Joker: Folie a Deux at Sony in this instance, but it’s not apples to oranges, it’s like apples to a chair. At a projected $180M+ global start, +5% ahead of Carnage, Last Dance is bound to course correct, and the plan is to profit. The first Venom grossed close to $247M after all ancillaries. Sony didn’t willy-nilly spend a near $200M on a musical Venom here, something fanboys would severely reject. Sony kept their production cost in line at $120M before P&A, very similar to the first with a co-finance partner TSG. If Sony gets faulted for anything, it’s for making more of the same old, same old in Venom, and not one-upping enough from the previous installment.

The third installment here was sold in ads as the exciting conclusion. Furthermore, there was the introduction of a supposed fan-fave villain in Knull — but a good portion of people who watched the previous two Venoms aren’t rushing out. As Disney’s Marvel Studios (who has no involvement in this picture) perfects and retools itself in regards to the development of superhero movies, even delaying its Mahershala Ali reboot of Blade, so should other studios handling comic book fare. Some will argue that superhero movies have gone the way of the westerns in the 1950s: Not if you make them better, and we’re standing at a time at the box office when Deadpool & Wolverine is the highest grossing R-rated movie ever at $1.3 billion.

When a sequel like Let There Be Carnage makes a half billion worldwide, and mushrooms the Venom franchise to $1.36 billion, it forces the hand of a major studio to just make another. The over-performance of Carnage stemmed from a perfect place in the fall 2021 calendar as moviegoers were just coming back from Covid, opening a month after Disney/Marvel’s Shang Chi. There was an appetite to continue to return to the movies, and there certainly wasn’t an epic World Series match-up standing in the way. However, it’s clear most moviegoers didn’t love part two any more than part one. Hence, there was that hurdle that Sony faced in making the threequel. Tom Hardy has always had a big voice and big foot in this franchise. He was paired this time around with the franchise’s co-scribe Kelly Marcel who made her feature directorial debut. No one at the studio told Hardy and Marcel that the screenplay required further development. Why did Sony take the chance on a first-time filmmaker? Marcel was integral to the success of the Venom series and Hardy got along with her. You’ll remember Hardy and director Ruben Fleischer reportledy bumped heads on the first Venom. Andy Serkis couldn’t return to direct after Carnage, I hear, due to scheduling issues and work on his next directing gig, the feature take of George Orwell’s Animal Farm (Serkis appears as a voice in part three).

Then there’s the whole bad luck of this weekend. Why did Sony move the movie up from Nov. 8 to a weekend when there’s the possibility of a World Series? Typically, nobody cares if Cleveland and San Diego are in the series, but an East vs. West brawl like Yankees and Dodgers was just never factored in. The notion of going this weekend stemmed from having at least three weekends of play before Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans’ Red One arrives and the enormous three tentpole hurricane that is Wicked, Moana 2 and Gladiator II over Thanksgiving. If this World Series goes seven games, Venom 3 could get a further squashing.

There are other distractions this weekend including pre-Halloween festivities, AFI Fest, birthday parties as well as men being taken hostage by the release of Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 yesterday on PlayStation 4, PlayStation 5, PC, Xbox One and Xbox Series X and S; a game that’s projected to rack up millions and millions in sales.

Updated under the hood of Venom 3: PostTrak is harder than CinemaScore as always with 73% positive, 55% definite recommend. Men leaning at 65%. 25-34 year olds were biggest demo at 32% with 27% those who bought tickets over 35. Latino and Hispanic moviegoers led here at 34%, followed by 32% Caucasian, 18% Black, 10% Asian and 6% Native American. Imax and PLFs rep 40% of business. Venom 3 is playing best in the South, South Central and West with the AMC Burbank the threequel’s No. 1 venue at a near $53K so far.   

Performing slightly beyond its $4M-$6M projection is Focus Features’ Conclave with an expected third place of $6.5M at 1,753 theaters and a B+ CinemaScore after a $2.5M Friday, 84% positive on Posttrak and a 62% definite recommend. Best playability for this Ralph Fiennes-Stanley Tucci-John Lithgow-Isabella Rossellini drama is the East Coast. Focus is only in for a portion of the $20M production cost as they only took domestic. Should this have platformed some argue? Was it wise to go wide? For a movie about Vatican holy dudes, aimed at significantly older sophisticated audiences (77% over 35, biggest demo is 55+ at 44%, 67% Caucasian), best to go wide versus a platform and get as much gross as you can before putting it on a home entertainment play for the holidays. This isn’t alluring Anora, who is going to tempt audiences weekend by weekend during her awards season run. Things to keep in consideration for this type of opening for Conclave: 2008 Catholic thriller, Doubt, did $5.3M in its 1,267 wide break (after two weekends of exclusivity). The king of post-Covid indie movies, Everything Everywhere All at Once, which yes, isn’t the exact comp here for Conclave, did $6.05M in its wide break at 1,250 sites. Focus Features’ Oscar darling from last year, The Holdovers, did $2.7M when it went to 1,478 locations, finishing at $20.3M. That’s some perspective in regards to the solid number here from Conclave as a specialty release. It’s in good company. Now, it’s just about whether it can do 4x multiple or better. AMC Lincoln Square at $21K so far is the top grossing theater for Conclave.

A24 and Studio Canal’s We Live in Time with $5M after a 2,964 wide break and a $1.87M Friday is playing evenly across the country with the British weepy drama winning over Regal Green Hills in Nashville, TN with a near $6K so far. Nothing to complain about here in a weekend three that’s up 20% from last weekend’s platform step. PostTrak updated is 82% positive, 61% definite recommend with 65% women showing up, 3% of the audience between 13-17 years old, 48% of the audience between 18-24 years old, and 21% of the audience 35+ years old. Diversity demos are 51% Caucasian, 28% Latino and Hispanic, 6% Black, 11% Asian and 4% Native American/other.  

On the specialty side, falling flat is Vertical Entertainment’s horror musical Your Monster starring Melissa Barrera which posted $110K yesterday at 651 theaters for a $264K 3-day or $405 theater average.

UPDATE, Friday PM: “Stay out of your car” this weekend is what’s going around Los Angeles.

The big hurdle keeping men out of cinemas is “Sportsageddon”: The L.A. Dodgers’ first face-off in 43 years with the New York Yankees in the World Series begins tonight, plus USC football and the L.A. Lakers have home games. Los Angeles was a big driver of 2021’s Venom: Let There Be Carnage with 11 of the top 20 grossing theaters, but this weekend, don’t expect so much with Sony/Marvel’s Venom: The Last Dance now doing a $21 million Friday (including last night’s previews) for an opening in the low $50Ms at 4,131 theaters. Hopefully this doesn’t drop further.

Audience scores at 77% on Rotten Tomatoes are just under that of the first Venom (80%) and Venom: Let There Be Carnage (84%).

Completely bailing out this $120M Tom Hardy production, which includes TSG as a co-financier for a third in, is foreign. International audiences are less cynical about superhero movies than stateside ones, who continue to demand that the bar be raised. Plus, there’s no World Series standing in the way overseas.

If there’s a global final box office take of $450M-$500M+, profitability can be entangled in Venom‘s web, and Sony is bullish it can get to a $180M global opening this weekend. This isn’t Joker: Folie à Deux, which did $115M worldwide off a $190M production cost before P&A and is sitting around $200M global.

Paramount’s Smile 2 is second so far this frame at 3,624 sites with $3.2M today, for a second weekend of $10.8M, -53%, with a running total of $42.1M.

Universal’s The Wild Robot won’t break down out of the top 5 with a fifth weekend of $6M, -41%, after a $1.7M Friday and running total of $110.8M at 3,422 sites.

Cineverse’s Terrifier 3 could upset the top 5 with a third weekend of $5.5M at 2,720 theaters, -41%, for a running total of $45.2M. Friday is $1.7M.

Focus Features’ wide opening of its acclaimed and awards-season chip Conclave at 1,753 locations is seeing $2.1M today, and $5.3M for the weekend, which is in between $4M-$6M projection. More on that later this weekend.

A24’s wide break of We Live in Time at 2,924 locations (+1,939 sites) is eyeing $1.5M today, a third weekend of $4.2M, which is even with its second frame’s $4.185M, for a running total of $11.1M.

FRIDAY UPDATE AFTER EXCLUSIVE: Sony/Marvel’s Venom: The Last Dance is coming in at $8.5 million in previews. There was a feeling the third Venom would be slightly higher in previews, and here it is. As we told you last night, that beats the $7.6M previews of Dwayne Johnson and DC’s Black Adam and the $7.5M of Fast X.

The projected global weekend is now at $180M, which will be 5% higher than the global start of Venom: Let There Be Carnage ($171.6 million), this despite an expected domestic drop in the mid-$60M range, the lowest of any of the Venoms.

The threequel gets 3 1/2 stars on Comscore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak, which isn’t far from the original 2018 movie and the 2021 sequel’s four stars. Parents and kids under 12 gave the movie 5 stars. Slightly more dads went last night at 53%, but moms got pulled into this Tom Hardy movie, too, at 47%.

General audiences were men 65% for Kelly Marcel’s feature directorial debut, with 18-34s at 66%. The overall Rotten Tomatoes audience score is 77%.

Meanwhile, Focus Features’ 93% certified fresh critically acclaimed Vatican thriller Conclave made $500,000 in collections at 1,500 theaters from previews that began at 2 p.m. Thursday night audiences gave the Ralph Fiennes film 3 1/2 stars on PostTrak and a 57% definite recommend. Mostly men attended last night at 62%. By the way, that’s the same amount of cash that We Live in Time made last Thursday from its second-step platform expansion. The outlook for Conclave is $4M-$6M. CAA Media Finance was the sales rep on Conclave.

A24’s wide break of We Live in Time in weekend 3 landed on PostTrak with 4 1/2 stars, 83% positive and 63% definite recommend off 61% females. In regular grosses, not including last night’s wide previews, the Andrew Garfield-Florence Pugh feature financed by Studio Canal drew an estimated $516K Thursday, -9% from Wednesday, for a $6.55M week and running total of $6.8M. The John Crowley-directed weepy romance is expected to ring up around $5M this weekend in its 2,000-theater break.

Paramount’s Smile 2 at 3,619 theaters led all movies in its first week with an estimated $31.2M; the Temple Hill production cost $28M before P&A. The horror pic led all titles in regular release yesterday with $1.4M, -21% from Wednesday.

PREVIOUSLY, Thursday PM EXCLUSIVE: Currently we hear that Sony/Marvel’s Venom: The Last Dance is eyeing around $8 million in previews tonight, maybe more by the morning. Showtimes began at 2 p.m. in the U.S. and Canada at 3,500 locations.

At that figure, there’s a path to a $65M opening, which we mentioned would rep the lowest start for the trilogy stateside after owning the third (2021’s Venom: Let There Be Carnage at $90M) and fourth (2018’s Venom) best openings for October. Yes, we expect more from superhero threequels, but this is Venom and the franchise always reaped significantly more abroad (anywhere from 60% to 75%) than domestic. Hence, the global number means more to the studio to make good on that $120M production cost before marketing spend.

Comps: 2022’s Black Adam saw $7.6M in previews before making $26.6M on its Friday and $67M for the weekend. There’s another similar comp in 2023’s Fast X, which had a $7.5M Thursday night, $28M Friday and $67M opening.

Recently, Warner Bros’ Joker: Folie à Deux posted $7M previews before falling apart to a $37.6M opening. However, that movie was sold under false pretenses to the fanboys, hence the D CinemaScore because they weren’t expecting to be knocked in the head by a musical. At least here with Last Dance, they’re getting what they paid for here in a zany, loopy Tom Hardy Venom movie.

Reviews are pretty bad for Venom: The Last Dance at 36% on Rotten Tomatoes — but they’re not the worst. That belongs to the first Venom at 30%. There was some improvement among film critics on part two at 57%. Both Venom and Venom: Let There Be Carnage earned B+ CinemaScores, which is healthy enough to make this also-ran antihero a tentpole.

Sony didn’t respond for comment on our industry projections tonight.

Venom: The Last Dance, directed by the franchise’s co-scribe Kelly Marcel in her behind-the-camera debut, is booked at 4,125 theaters.

Also opening this weekend is Focus Features’ Edward Berger-directed Vatican thriller Conclave and A24’s We Live in Time, which is going super wide at 2,000 theaters for its third frame.